Does the stock-to-flow model work?

It described prices well until 2021, but since then the price has stayed far below the model. Many analysts consider it falsified. We show it as a historical model.

Why does S2F jump at each halving?

A halving cuts yearly new supply in half while the stock barely changes, so the ratio roughly doubles.

Bitcoin stock-to-flow model

Stock-to-flow (S2F) = coins in existence / yearly new supply. In 2019 PlanB proposed price = e^(−1.84) × S2F^3.36. We compute it from the public issuance schedule.

On 2026-10-22: S2F ≈ 122, model price $1.6M, actual close $84,019 — the model is currently about 20× above the real price.

Formula: PlanB, Mar 2019 · Prices: blockchain.info charts/market-price (daily USD, sampled=false) (22 Oct 2026, 19:15 London) · Supply estimated from the halving schedule (144 blocks/day), ±1%.

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⚠ This is a model, not a forecast. Models describe past data and have already diverged from the real price. Not investment advice.

Price vs S2F model (log scale)

S2F modelBTC price

FAQ

Does the stock-to-flow model work?: It described prices well until 2021, but since then the price has stayed far below the model. Many analysts consider it falsified. We show it as a historical model.
Why does S2F jump at each halving?: A halving cuts yearly new supply in half while the stock barely changes, so the ratio roughly doubles.