On-chain indicators & valuation models

On-chain series from bitcoin-data.com (free tier) arrive about a week late. Models are computed by us from the daily price history.

Realized value prices every coin at the moment it last moved on-chain, so it approximates what holders paid in total. MVRV = market value ÷ realized value. Near or below 1, the average holder is at break-even or a loss (past cycle bottoms). Above ~3.5 the market has historically been overheated (past cycle tops).

Realized price = realized value ÷ coins in circulation: the average on-chain cost basis per coin. When the market price falls below it, the average holder is underwater.

LTH/STH supply (how many coins each group holds) is not available from free sources we can verify, so we show LTH/STH MVRV and SOPR instead.

Long-term holders (LTH) are coins unmoved for 155+ days; short-term holders (STH) are younger coins. STH-MVRV near 1 means recent buyers are at break-even, a level that often acts as support or resistance.

NUPL = (market value − realized value) ÷ market value: the share of market value that is paper profit. Below 0: the network as a whole is at a loss (capitulation). 0–0.25 hope, 0.25–0.5 optimism, 0.5–0.75 belief, above 0.75 euphoria.

SOPR = selling price ÷ purchase price of coins moved that day. Above 1, sellers on average take profit; below 1, they sell at a loss. In bull markets dips to 1 tend to be bought; in bear markets rallies to 1 tend to be sold.

Plotted on log scales, bitcoin's price has followed a roughly straight line against time since the genesis block. We fit log10(price) = a + b·log10(days since 3 Jan 2009) to all daily prices (the same fit as the Rainbow chart). The dashed extension is the model's continuation, not a forecast.

S2F = coins in existence ÷ coins mined in the past year; it doubles at each halving. We fit price against S2F on log scales using real history. Caveat: the popular S2F model (PlanB, 2019) projected roughly $100k by the end of 2021, and the model implies far higher prices after the 2024 halving; the actual price has run well below it. S2F only looks at supply and ignores demand, so treat it as history, not a price target.

Above ~2.4 has historically marked overheated tops; below ~0.8 has marked deep value. Around 1 the price sits at its 200-day average.

The 200-week (≈1,400-day) average has acted as the floor of past bear markets: price rarely spent long below it.

Puell = value of new coins issued today ÷ its 365-day average. Below ~0.5 miners are squeezed (past bottoms); above ~4 issuance is unusually valuable (past tops). Our long series is computed from price and the block-subsidy schedule (fees excluded, daily blocks interpolated from year-end heights); the bitcoin-data.com value uses actual blocks.