Bitcoin's weekly MACD turns positive after 44 negative weeks
Bitcoin Magazine reports the weekly MACD has flipped positive after 44 straight negative weeks and calls it a historical bull-market signal. We recomputed it from Coinbase prices: the count checks out.
On 12 October 2026 Bitcoin Magazine posted a chart by Quinten François (@Quintenfrancois): Bitcoin's weekly momentum has flipped positive on the MACD chart after 44 consecutive negative weeks. The post adds: "This historically signals the start of a bull market."
This is news and a data check, not investment advice. The "bull market signal" is the source's claim, not our forecast.
What MACD is
MACD (moving average convergence divergence) is a momentum indicator. On a weekly chart it is the 12-week exponential moving average of the closing price minus the 26-week one. Above zero means recent prices are running above the longer trend; below zero means the opposite.
Our check
We recomputed the weekly MACD from public Coinbase BTC-USD daily candles (weekly close = Sunday close, UTC, completed weeks only):
| Result | |
|---|---|
| First negative week | week ending 23 Nov 2025 (close $86,808) |
| Last negative week | week ending 20 Sep 2026 |
| First positive week | week ending 27 Sep 2026 (close $84,462) |
| Negative weeks in a row | 44 ✅ matches the post |
| Latest completed week | 11 Oct 2026: MACD line +2,158, still positive |
The count of 44 weeks matches. The MACD line crossed zero in the week ending 27 September and stayed positive through 4 and 11 October.
Earlier long negative runs
On the same data, the previous long negative stretches ended:
- week ending 12 May 2019, after 50 negative weeks (close $6,980);
- week ending 5 March 2023, after 58 negative weeks (close $22,433).
These are past events only. A few earlier flips also happened (for example in February 2020 after 10 weeks), and past patterns do not guarantee what comes next.
Why it matters
Many traders watch the weekly MACD as a slow trend gauge. A zero-line cross says momentum has changed; it says nothing on its own about how long a move lasts. For the wider picture see our fact-check of the "bull market is back" talk and the cycles page.
What do you watch to judge the trend: indicators like MACD, on-chain data or nothing at all?
Sources
- Bitcoin Magazine on X, 12 Oct 2026 (chart by @Quintenfrancois) x.com
- Quinten François on X (@Quintenfrancois), chart author x.com
- Coinbase Exchange daily candles BTC-USD api.exchange.coinbase.com
Times are Lugano (CEST, UTC+2) and Moscow (UTC+3). Not investment advice.
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